ZHINENGMENSUOZICHUSHIYILAI，GEZHONGXINWENJIUMEIDUANGUOYIZHIWEIDUAN，YIFANGMIANSHIYULUNGUCHUI“QIANYISHICHANG”QIANLIJUDA，YIFANGMIANSHIZIBENQINGLAIBUDUANJIAMA，ZUIZHONGLUODIDAOSHICHANGQUESHI“ZHIWENLEI，BUJIANYU”。

2018NIANJIGOUDIAOCHASHUJUXIANSHI，ZHONGGUOZHINENGSUOQIYEGONGYESHENGCHANZONGZHIJIUCHAOGUOLE100YI，CHANPINXIAOSHOUZONGSHUCHAOGUO1500WANTAO。DANXIANRANZHEIYISHUZIYUANYUANWEINENGDADAOXINGYEYUQI，ZAOZAI2016NIANXINGYEBAOFACHUQI，YOURENYUJI2018NIANSHICHANGXIAOLIANGJIANGTUPO3000WANTAOYISHANG，ERSHISHIQUESHIYIGEXIANGLIANGDEERGUANG。

NEIMEZHINENGMENSUODEQIANYISHICHANGDAODIHESHIDAOLAI?YOUHUOZHEWEIHECHICHIBULAI?

YI、ZHONGGUOZHINENGMENSUOSHICHANGRONGLIANGCESUAN

MUQIANZHINENGMENSUODEJIAGEDADUOWEI2000YUAN-3000YUAN，PINGJUNJIAGEYUE2500YUAN，BICHUANTONGJIXIESUOGAOCHU10BEIYISHANG，YOUHENDADE“JIACHAKONGJIAN”，BAHENDUOKANZHONGJIAGEDEXIAOFEIZHELANZAIMENWAI。

JUQIANZHANCHANYEYANJIUYUANFABUDE《ZHINENGMENSUOCHANPINSHICHANGYUJISHUFAZHANSHENDUDIAOYANFENXIBAOGAO》TONGJISHUJUXIANSHI，2015-2017NIAN，ZHINENGMENSUOXIAOSHOUSHULIANGYOU197WANTAOZENGZHI814WANTAO，SHICHANGGUIMOYOU49YIYUANZENGZHI203YIYUAN。JUQIANZHANYUJI，2019NIANHOU，SUIZHEJINGZHENGGEJUDEBUDUANQINGXI，GONGYINGLIANDEZHUJIANWANSHAN，ZHINENGMENSUOJUNJIAJIANGZHUJIANXIAJIANGDAO2000YUANZUOYOU。2023NIAN，ZHINENGMENSUOXIAOLIANGJIANGTUPO6500WANTAO。

2015-2023NIANZHONGGUOZHINENGMENSUOSHICHANGRONGLIANGCESUANQINGKUANG

数据来源:前瞻产业研究院整理

ER、ZHINENGMENSUOMEIYOUZOUJINYONGHUXINLI

XINGYEYEHAO，ZIBENYEHAO，WEIHEDUIYUZHINENGMENSUOSHICHANGCHONGMANXINXIN?HENDAYIBUFENYUANYINSHILAIZIOUMEIJIRIHANDENGGUOJIADESHUJUZHICHENG。

SHUJUXIANSHI，OUMEIGUOJIADEZHINENGMENSUOSHENTOULVWEI35%，RIHANDEZHINENGMENSUOSHENTOULVDADAOLE70%YISHANG，ERWOGUODEZHINENGMENSUOSHENTOULVZAI2016NIANWEI3%，ZHIDAO2018NIANSHANGBANNIANYEBUGUO5%ZUOYOU，DANXIANGBIOUMEI、RIHANDENGGUOJIA，WOGUORENKOUJISHUJUDA，5%DETILIANGYEZUGOUJUDA。

SUOYIYOUZHEIXIEYUZHUZAIQIAN，GUONEISHICHANGDUIYUZHINENGMENSUODEQIANJINGYECONGMANLEQIWANG，ZHISHIZAILIJINGJINIANDEFAZHANHOU，SHICHANGFANKUIBINGBURUYUQI，ZHIYINZHINENGMENSUOBINGWEIZOUJINGUORENXINLI。

1、ZAIYUYONGHUXIGUAN。GUONEIYONGHUMUQIANDABUFENHAISHIXIGUANSHIYONGYAOCHISUO，DUIYUZHINENGMENSUOMEIYOUGAINIAN。TEBIESHIZHONGLAONIANRENQUNCHUANTONGGUANNIANFEICHANGSHEN，YISHIDUIYUXINXIANSHIWUXINGQUQUEFA，YISHIDUIYU“CAICHANANQUAN”WENTIGEWAIZHONGSHI，ZHEIYUTAMENDESHENGHUOHUANJINGXIXIXIANGGUAN，ZAOXIANNIANGUONEIDEZHIANQINGKUANGYUANBURUXIANZAI，NEISHIXIAOTOUXIAOMOFEICHANGDUO，DANBIJINGKAICHUANTONGSUOHAISHIYIMEN“JISHUHUO”，ERKAIZHINENGMENSUOZHIXUYAOYIGE“HEIHEZI”BINGQIESHEIDOUNENGKAI。

BINGQIEXIANZAIDEMENSUOYONGLEZENMEDUONIANYIRANKEYONG，QUEFAXIAOFEIDONGJI，RANGRENJUEDEMEIBIYAOHUA“YUANWANGQIAN”。AIRUICENGFABUXIANGGUANSHUJUXIANSHI，YOUJIANGJIN65%DESHOUFANGZHEBIAOSHI，ZAIXUYAOGENGHUANFANGDAOMENHUOMENSUOSHI，HUIKAOLVZHINENGMENSUO，DANBUHUIYINWEIDANCHUNDEHUANSUOERHUANSUO。

2、JIAGEYESHIZUAIZHIYI。XIANGBICHUANTONGMENSUODEJIBAIYUANYIBA，ZHINENGMENSUODEJIAGEDIDEYEYAOQIANYUANZUOYOU，GAODEKEDASHUQIANSHENZHISHANGWAN。RUCIGAODEJIAGECHAYI，HUISHIDEYUANBENYOUYIGENGHUANMENSUODEQIANZAIYONGHU“DADUN”。

3、JISHUBUCHENGSHUSHIYONGHUTILIANGSHANGBUQUDEZUIDAYUANYIN。GUANYUZHINENGMENSUODEFUMIANXIAOXIBEIBAOCHUSHIZAITAIDUO，ERMENSUOZUOWEIJIATINGRUKOU，SHIJIATINGSHENGHUODEDIYIDAOBAOZHANG，ZHEILEIXINWENZUGOUYOUHUATIXING，SUOYIDANGZHINENGMENSUOCHUXIANSHENMEWENTI，GELEIMEITIDOULEYUBAODAO，ERRUMURANZHIXIASHIDEXIAOFEIZHEDUIYUZHEILEICHANPINQUEFAXINREN，ERGENBENYUANYINSHIXINGYEZISHENJISHUSHUIPINGHAIWEINENGDADAOYONGHUXUQIU。

ZAI2018NIANDI，GUOJIAZHIJIANZHONGXINJIUDUISHIMIANSHANG40KUANZHINENGMENSUOZUOLEFENGXIANJIANCE，15% DOUNENGBEIXIAOHEIHEMIAOKAI，SHENGYUJUEDADUOSHUDOUCUNZAIANQUANFENGXIAN。

RIQIAN，ZHONGGUOXIAOFEIZHEXIEHUILIANHESHUJIASHIJIXIAOWEI，YOUZUOLEYICIJIANCE。XIAOXIEDEGONGZUORENYUANMONIPUTONGXIAOFEIZHEGOUMAILE29KUANZHINENGMENSUO，NENGBEIXIAOHEIHEMIAOKAIDEMENSUOHAIYOUYIBA，QITAFANGMIAN，RENGYOU48.3% DEYANGPINMIMAKAIQIANQUANCUNZAIFENGXIAN，50% DEYANGPINZHIWENSHIBIEKAIQIANQUANCUNZAIFENGXIAN，85.7% DEYANGPINXINXISHIBIEKAKAIQIANQUANCUNZAIFENGXIAN。

SAN、JIZHONGDUDI，XINGYEBENSHENWEIZHANZHUJIAO

ZHINENGMENSUODEFAZHANSHIJIANYIRANBUDUAN，DANFANGUANXINGYEJIZHONGDUBINGWEIXIANGQITAXINGYEYIYANGKAISHITIGAO，FANERYOUYUELAIYUEFENSANDEQUSHI。

ZHIYINSHICHANGGUISHUYIZHIMEIYOULUODING，JIUXIANGZAIYIPIANSHUIZHONG，YOUYIKUAIDANGAO，QICHUZHIYOUJIZHIMAYIZAIZHOUWEIXIANGYAODUSHUICHIDANGAO，DANYINWEISHUIMIANTAIKUAN，NEIJIZHIMAYIYIZHIGUOBUQU，SHIDEDANGAOYIZHICUNZAI，ZHEIYANGYILAIJIUYINCHULEGENGDUODEMAYI。

JUTONGJI，MUQIANWOGUOZHINENGMENSUOCHANYEGONGJIYOUSHENGCHANQIYE2000DUOJIA，JIN3000GEPINPAI。

QIZHONGYOUFENCHULEJIDAPAIXI，FENBIESHIYICHUIZIHEYOUDIANWEISHOUDEPAIXI;YIDAHUA、HAIKANGWEISHIDENGWEISHOUDEANFANGPAIXI;YILUKE、GUOJIA、YUNYOU、360WEIDAIBIAODEHULIANWANGPAIXI;YIHAIER、MEIDE、CHUANGWEIWEIDAIBIAODECHUANTONGPAIXI;YIKAIDISHI、DESHIMANDENGZUCHENGDEZHUANYEZHINENGSUOPAIXI;ZAIJIASHANGYIYAJIE、DINGGU、MOLI、JULIDENGZHUANXINGDECHUANTONGSUOJUZHENYING。

JIBIANSHIYIXIEZAISHICHANGZHONGYIJINGXIAOYOUMINGQIDEPINPAI，LIRULUKE、GUOJIADENGDENGXINGYEJIZHONGDUYEFEICHANGDI。SHUJUXIANSHI，ZHINENGMENSUOXINGYEGUIMOPAIMINGQIAN20DEQIYESHICHANGZHANBIBUDAO60%，YUANDIYUQITATONGDENGSHICHANGGUIMODEXINGYE。

ZHEIMEDUOQIYEHUNZHANQIZHONG，DUIYUXINGYEERYANSHIBASHUANGRENJIAN，YIFANGMIANJINGZHENGDUISHOUDUO，KEYIRANGQIYEBAOCHIJINGTI，DAOBIQIYETISHENGJISHUHEFUWU，BINGQIEBAIJIAZHENGMINGDEJUMIANYOULIYUZHINENGMENSUODETUIGUANGPUJI;LINGYIFANGMIAN，QIYESHULIANGDUOERBUJING，YULONGHUNZARANGRENWUSUOSHICONG，DALIANGCHANPINZHILIANGWUFABAOZHENG，YETUOKUALEDAPIXIAOFEIZHEDEXINREN，ZAOCHENGLEMUQIANZHINENGMENSUOSHICHANGDEWUXUZHUANGTAI。

XIANRANMUQIANHOUZHEDEYINGXIANGMINGXIANDAYUQIANZHE，XINGYEJIXUYIGEHUOJIGE“DAITOUDAGE”LAIWENDINGSHICHANG，TIGONGKOUBEIBAOZHANG。

ZHINENGMENSUOXINGYEFAZHANJIUXIANGDUONIANQIANGUONEIZHINENGSHOUJIXINGYEYIYANG，BISHIGUOCHANZHINENGSHOUJIPINPAIYISHIBAOFASHICHUXIAN，DANDADUOBEIGUANYISHANZHAIZHIMING，XIAOFEIZHESUOXINLAIHUOERSHUNENGXIANGDEDOUSHIGUOWAIPINPAI。ZHIDAOHUAMIOVZHEIXIEPINPAIJUEQI，CAIDAIBIAOZHEGUOCHANZHINENGSHOUJIZHONGYUZOUJINLEXIAOFEIZHEXINLIHUODERENTONG。

XIANZAIZHINENGMENSUOTONGYANGRUCI，SHENZHIGENGGANGADESHILIANZUGOUXINLAIKEYIYONGLAICANZHAODEGUOWAIPINPAIDOUMEIYOU，ZHEIJIUXUYAOGUOCHANPINPAIZIJILAIJINXINGPEIYANG，ERZHEIJIANGBIZHINENGSHOUJIPUJIHUAFEIGENGDUODESHIJIAN。

ZHIYOUDANGZIBENCHOUSHEN，XINGYESHUIZHANGCHUANGAOBINGQIE“YANSI”YIPIBUJUCHUANGXINMEIYOUSHICHANGJINGZHENGLIDEPINPAI，ZHINENGMENSUOCAINENGSUANSHIZHENZHENGSHANGLU。HAOXIAOXISHI，CONGJINNIANNIANCHUKAISHI，XINGYEZHONGZHONGJIXIANGBIAOMING，XIPAIYIJINGKAISHISHANGYAN，XINGYEGEJUHUOJIANGCONGJINNIANKAISHIZHONGZHI，MATAIXIAOYINGKAISHIXIANXIAN。

SI、ZHINENGMENSUODEQIANYISHICHANGHUIBUHUILAI?

ZHINENGMENSUODEQIANYISHICHANGHUIBUHUILAI?DAANSHIKENDINGDE，ZHINENGMENSUOJUEDUISHIYOUWEILAIDE，ZHISHIZHEIGESHIJIANHUOXUBISHICHANGPANDUANHUIWAN3-5NIAN。

JINIANZHIHOU，XIAOFEIRENKOUJIANGYI90HOUWEIZHUDAO，XIAOFEIGUANNIANJIXIGUANDEBIANGENG，ZHINENGMENSUOJIANGHUIBEIGENGGUANGFANDEJIESHOU。

ZHIWAI，JISHUCHENDIANYEHAIJIANGXUYAOSHIJIAN，ZHINENGMENSUODEBENZHIGONGNENGHAISHIZAIYUANQUAN。JUSUTUYANJIUYUANSHUJU，86.8%DEXIAOFEIZHEZUIZHONGSHIZHINENGMENSUODEANQUANXING，YUANGAOYUSHIYONGXING、BIANJIEXING、ZHILIANGDENGYINSU。SUOYIZHIYOUDANGCHANPINNENGGOUJINGSHOUZHUSHICHANGJIANYAN，BUZAIXIANGXIANZAIYIYANGDONGZHEGEZHONGFUMIANPINCHUSHI，CAINENGCHEDIZHENGFUSHICHANG。

5GLUODIYEJIANGCHENGWEIZHINENGMENSUOPUJIDEGUANJIANYINSUZHIYI，ZHINENGMENSUOTONGYANGBEISHIWEI5GSHIDAIXIAWULIANWANGRUKOUZHIYI，SUIRAN“ZHINENGXIANGDUILUN”RENWEIXIANGBIQITACHANPIN，ZHINENGMENSUOHAICHADIANHUOHOU，DANZHEIBINGBUYINGXIANGXINGYEDEMANQIANGREQING。

WU、WEILAIZHONGGUOZHINENGMENSUOXINGYEFAZHANQUSHIFENXI

1、SHANGYEMOSHICHUXIANBIANHUA。MUQIANZHINENGMENSUOZHUYAOSHICAIYONGTo BPULU，DAIDONGTo CDEMOSHI，To BDEMOSHISHIZAISHIMUQIANQIYEBUDEYIERWEIZHI，ZHIYINCDUANSHICHANGDEDAMENHAIWEIZHENZHENGDAKAI，XIANGGUANQIYEBIAOSHIZHISHIXIANGTONGGUOGONGYU、LOUPANMAIYAOHE，KANZHONGDEDOUSHIYINGXIANGLI，SHIJICHANPINBINGMEIYOULIRUN，DANSUIZHEXINGYEJIZHONGDUTISHENG，CHANPINSHICHANGSHOUZHONGYUELAIYUEGUANG，DILIRUNDETo BSHICHANGJIANGLUNWEIJILEI，DANGRANBUPAICHUSUIZHEXINGYEJIZHONGDUDETISHENG，XINGYEYIJIANENGLISUIZHITISHENG，MUQIANBOLIDUOXIAODETo BSHICHANGYEBIANDEYOULIKETU。

2、ZHINENGMENSUOJIANGSHENGTAIHUA。ZAIZHINENGJIAJULINGYU“DANPINWEIWANG”DESHIDAIYIJINGJIESHU，TEBIESHI5GZHIXIA，BUNENGRONGRUSHENGTAIDEZHINENGJIAJUCHANPINDOUBUSHIHAOCHANPIN，SUOYIXIANRANZHINENGMENSUOYEXUYAOYUZHENGGEZHINENGXITONGSHENGTAILIANJIECAINENGYONGYOUGENGWANQIANGDESHENGMINGLI。

3、ZHINENGMENSUOJIANGHUIZOUXIANGDUOYUANHUAFAZHAN。JIUXIANGCHUANTONGSUOYEYIYANG，QIZHONGHUICHUXIANXUDUOXIFEN，LIRUHUWAISUOHESHINEISUO，YOUHUOZHEBAOXIANGSUOHEJIAJUSUO，DOUHUISUIZHEXINGYEFAZHANMANMANYANSHENG，ERBUSHIXIANGMUQIANZHEIYANGDOUJIZHONGZAIYIGELINGYU。

SUIRANZHINENGMENSUOBINGBUXIANGZHINENGSHOUJIYIYANGJUBEIBUKEDAITIXING，ZHISHIXIANGBICHUANTONGMENSUO，ZHINENGMENSUOJUBEIKEJIGAN、YANZHI、GONGNENGXING、BIANJIEDENGYOUSHI。DANZHINENGHUAWUYISHIWEILAIQUSHI，RENHECHANPINXINGYEMUQIANDOUZAITANAI，LINGXIANZAIQIPAOXIANDEZHINENGMENSUOXIANRANBUHUILUOHOU。

ZHINENGMENSUORUJINZHENGCONGYEMANSHENGZHANGJIEDUANBURUWENDINGFAZHANJIEDUAN，ZHEIDAIBIAOXINGYEZHENGZAICHENGSHU，ZAIJINGLIMUQIANYIJINGKAISHIDEXIPAIZHIHOU，XIANGXINZHINENGMENSUOJIANGTARUYIYONGHUXUQIUHECHANPINZHILIANGWEIBIAOZHUNDEKECHIXUFAZHANZHILU，YEJIANGZHENZHENGZOUJINQIANJIAWANHU。